Time to deliver on Paris

"We are so dangerously close to the point where things might start becoming unmanageable.” 

That was the opening salvo from Rachel Kyte, UK Special Representative for Climate, to attendees at last week's urgent policy briefing in Cambridge: ‘10 Years of the Paris Climate Agreement: Reflecting on what has worked, what hasn’t and what comes next’.

A decade after the signing of the Paris Climate Agreement, a panel of experts at the briefing, co-hosted by Cambridge Zero, Cambridge Centre for Environment, Energy and Natural Resource Governance (CEENRG) and University of Cambridge Department of Politics and International Studies (POLIS), agreed that calls for climate action are struggling to be heard in a volatile era shaped by war, fossil fuel lobbying, populism and growing global instability.  

The meeting follows last month's speech from UK Energy Secretary Ed Miliband where he announced plans to double down on the Government's commitment to net zero, saying: "the era of clean energy security must come of age.”

Kyte's follow-on message to everyone at the Cambridge conference was clear: “We are beyond pledges, it’s now time to deliver."

When the Paris agreement was signed in 2015, it marked a major turning point in global policy, a legally binding treaty aiming to limit global warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, making climate neutrality a mainstream objective.

Event host Dr Caroline Bertram noted the scale of the current challenges.

“Fossil fuel production remains deeply embedded in the global economy, climate finance remains inadequate and contested and climate action is increasingly called on in domestic and international politics,” Bertram said.

Many of the panellists questioned how climate governance operates in a world defined by conflict and economic insecurity.

“The political conditions under which the agreement was signed in 2015 no longer exist,” said Matthew Paterson, Professor of International Politics, University of Manchester.

Climate action is now more contested than it has been previously, he explained. 'The rise of right-wing populism, particularly in Global North states have led to attacks on climate action and net zero."

Paterson gave the current conflict in Iran as an example of how it is being used to strengthen what he described as a “fossil fuels forever” narrative. 

“There are forces pushing the for the UK to pump all the oil out of the North Sea in the name of energy security,” he said.

Joanna Depledge, Centre for Environment, Energy and Natural Resource Governance Fellow, echoed this concern. 

"I hope the terrible conflict in Iran will have the silver lining that we will double down and decarbonise," Depledge said. "It’s not just important for the climate, but also crucial for energy security."

The energy transition has seen significant growth over the past decade, particularly through the rapid rise of renewable technologies and electrification. Renewable energy, batteries and electric vehicles have become dramatically cheaper than in 2015, helping energy systems shift worldwide. 

"In that sense, the Paris agreement is working, but we need to go further and faster,” Depledge said.

Professor Harro van Asselt, Professor of Climate Law and Policy at Cambridge, explored how climate governance has become increasingly fragmented since Paris, with new alliances, legal frameworks and institutions emerging alongside the UN framework.

“While these initiatives can help fill governance gaps, they could also contribute to complexity and regulatory uncertainty,” van Asselt said. "We need to create clear division of labour with more collaboration, what institution will be responsible for what."

Van Asselt also pointed to the rise in climate litigation and highlighted the growing role of courts in shaping climate accountability.

“In almost all of these court cases, the Paris agreement is being invoked,” he said,

Accountability featured heavily throughout the discussion. 

Kyte questioned whether voluntary climate commitments have reached their limit and asked if it was time for stronger accountability mechanisms and binding targets.

 “How do we tip over into holding ourselves accountable?” she said.

She argued that while Paris succeeded in bringing countries together, the gap between ambition and implementation is clear, with very few governments fully embedding those commitments into binding domestic legislation.

Kyte said that alongside this there was a big gap in the ability to finance plans, particularly for countries trying to transition away from the dependence on the production of fossil fuels while maintaining economic stability. She pointed to the need for multilateral climate funds and international financial institutions that can better support solutions.

Professor Lisa Vanhala, Professor of Political Science, University College London, explained that loss and damage caused by climate change has already become prevalent across much of the planet. 

“We know that there are adverse impacts driven by extreme weather events, and slower creeping hazards like sea level rise.” Vanhala said, arguing that it has become essential to build better support into climate governance systems for countries already suffering the most extreme effects of climate change.

Despite the geopolitical backlash and instability, Kyte urged the audience to remain optimistic, reminding everyone that the structure of Paris Agreement remains resilient in spite of the withdrawal of the United States under U.S. President Donald Trump's administration and that there were still 194 other countries holding fast.   

"195 minus one does not equal zero," she said. "It’s important to remember that since they withdrew, no one else has followed.”

She said it was clear the structures of the agreement must adapt to a politically fragmented world, deliver more accountability and increase the speed of implementation.

But Kyte believes we're only at the beginning of what is possible. 

"Some of the most interesting innovation is yet to come," she said. 

"After 10 years we should be very proud...but it's no time to relax.”