Rt Hon Rishi Sunak MP
Prime Minister
10 Downing Street
London
SW1A 2AA
20 July 2023
Dear Prime Minister,
We coordinated a letter to you on 28 March, from 678 members of the research community on climate science and other related disciplines, calling on you to ensure that the Government’s revised Net Zero Strategy included a commitment not to approve any new development of onshore or offshore oil and gas fields.
We are disappointed that you have not yet responded to our letter. With searing heat around the world reminding us of the very real danger posed by climate change, we are even more disappointed that the Government’s revised Net Zero Strategy did not rule out any new development of onshore and offshore oil and gas fields. Indeed, you and some Cabinet ministers have made public statements recently that appear to suggest the Government may continue to approve new developments. We call on you again to make a commitment, based on the scientific evidence, not to approve any new development of onshore or offshore oil and gas fields.
To be clear, if the Government did decide to approve development of the Rosebank or other fields, it would make it more difficult for the world to cut global emissions of carbon dioxide to net zero by 2050. The necessity of this was recognised in the decision of the COP26 United Nations climate change summit in 2021, of which the UK was President. New development of oil or gas would increase the risk that global mean surface temperature exceeds 1.5°C, with severe consequences for the UK and the rest of the world, as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change pointed out in the Synthesis Report of the Sixth Assessment Report on 20 March.
The only way that new development of onshore and offshore oil and gas fields by the UK could be consistent with the aim of limiting the rise in global temperature to 1.5°C would be if it also persuaded other producers to leave in the ground an equivalent amount of their current reserves, or if carbon capture, utilisation and storage were deployed at a far greater pace and scale than at present to permanently remove the equivalent amount. If this is your plan, we would be grateful if you could lay out in a quantified way how you intend to achieve it.
We know from colleagues in other countries that the UK’s reputation for responsible evidence-based policy-making on climate change is under threat. This impression has been reinforced by the latest progress report by the Climate Change Committee, which concluded that “the UK has lost its clear global leadership position on climate action”, citing factors such as the failure to respond to the energy crisis by accelerating the deployment of energy efficiency measures and clean domestic energy sources. The report also stated that expansion of fossil fuel production is not in line with the UK’s net zero pathway: “The UK will continue to need some oil and gas until it reaches Net Zero, but this does not in itself justify the development of new North Sea fields”.
It is increasingly evident that the UK itself is not well-prepared to cope with the growing impacts of climate change, as the Climate Change Committee pointed out in its progress report in March. The UK remains exposed and vulnerable to the direct impacts of climate change, including more frequent and intense heatwaves, heavy rainfall causing inland flooding, and sea level rise increasing coastal flooding. It is also exposed and vulnerable to the impacts of climate change in other parts of the world which harm supplies of food and other goods and services, threaten political stability, and drive migration and displacement of people.
The Met Office has warned that last month was the hottest June in the UK since records began in 1884, and the World Meteorological Organisation has concluded it was the hottest on record globally. That increases the likelihood that this year will be the warmest on record. Damage to lives and livelihoods is increasing as we head perilously close to breaching the 1.5°C threshold. The world needs strong political leadership on climate change now.
We appeal to you to reclaim for the UK global leadership on climate change, safeguarding lives and livelihoods of people today, and their children and grandchildren, here and around the world.
Yours sincerely,
Professor Emily Shuckburgh FRMetS, Director, Cambridge Zero, University of Cambridge; Bob Ward FGS FRGS FEI, Policy and Communications Director, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science
